research report · COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.

Johannes Vermeer, Woman Holding a Balance, c. 1664, detail · National Gallery of Art

Viridis’s deep research report, written Nov 1, 2026 from its quarterly report (10-Q for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026). Written and checked with Anthropic’s Claude models.

your email, no card; what you get

business trajectory

Deteriorating

worse on balance: sales, margins, cash or competitive position

financial resilience

Strong

can meet its obligations and fund its plan for two years with money it can count on, with room

Judgments of the business from its filings, not of its shares: no valuation, no advice.

bottom line

Coinbase is leaner but weaker than a year ago. In the third quarter of 2026, total revenue fell 35% to $1,215.6M. Operating income fell to $61.7M from $480.5M. The $718.7M of net income rests on a $715.0M rise in the value of the company's own crypto holdings, not on its operations.

Cost cuts and flat revenue against the second quarter point to a floor. Even so, revenue still tracks crypto trading and the interest earned on USDC reserves through one counterparty that supplied 27% of revenue. The balance sheet is sound: $8.8B of cash and marketable investments against $6.0B of notes maturing in 2028–2032.

what changed this quarter

  • Revenue: $1,215.6M against $1,868.7M a year earlier. Transaction revenue was $590.2M (−44%) and subscription and services revenue was $570.2M (−20%).
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $332.9M against $800.7M a year earlier, but up 60% from $207.8M in the second quarter. This is management's profit measure, before interest, tax, depreciation, stock pay and crypto and investment gains.
  • Expense guidance cut: the 2026 range for Adjusted Expenses is now $4,150–$4,300M, down from $4,200–$4,450M in July.
  • Debt and buybacks: $1.27B of convertible notes were repaid in cash on June 1. Buybacks totaled $1.25B over nine months, but only 37,995 shares were bought in the third quarter.
  • Other events: on July 30 a court granted summary judgment to Coinbase on most transactions in the Underwood class action. The Circle arrangement was renewed on the same terms. The Chief Accounting Officer announced her retirement on September 29.

in the full report

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

  • The shift toward subscription revenue is mostly a shrinking trading line
  • Core operating profit is near zero; the headline profit comes from marks and tax items
  • Stablecoin income rests on one partner and on rates, and the dependence is rising
  • The growth bets cushion revenue but have not shown they pay for themselves

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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