Conocophillips

ConocoPhillips more than doubled third-quarter profit because oil prices jumped on Middle East supply disruptions, not because it produced more. The average price it realized rose 32% to $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent, while production adjusted for asset sales fell 2%. That windfall paid for capital spending, the dividend and $2.4B of buybacks with room to spare, and debt stayed flat against $9.9B of cash and short-term investments. The business is stronger on balance. Its volume growth, however, now hinges on the Qatar North Field East and Port Arthur LNG projects and Alaska's Willow field, which start between 2027 and early 2029, and North Field East has already slipped.

• Net income was $4.0B ($3.34 a share), against $1.7B ($1.38) a year earlier. Excluding one-off items, earnings were $3.27 a share against $1.61.
• Production was 2,302 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day (MBOED), against 2,399. On a like-for-like basis it was 2,295 against 2,334.
• The quarterly dividend rose 11% to $0.93.
• Fourth-quarter production is guided at 2.32–2.36 million barrels a day. Full-year capital spending guidance was kept at approximately $12–12.5B, versus approximately $12B in February.
• Andy O'Brien became CEO on September 1. A $1.7B Lower 48 sale completed the $5B disposal target. The company signed a $0.4B Kirkuk, Iraq deal and is reviewing a possible sale of Norway (about 5% of production) after an unsolicited offer.

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

• The profit jump is a price windfall on a slightly shrinking base
• Volumes trail the February plan, and the LNG ramp slipped
• Cash covers capital spending and payouts with room
• Growth after 2026 rests on long-dated commitments still under construction

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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