Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Goldman is earning well above its own return targets, and the growth is using up the capital cushion that pays for shareholder payouts. Third-quarter revenue rose 23% from a year earlier to $18.68B. Annualized return on common equity (ROE) was 18.7%, against a through-the-cycle target of 14% to 16%. The standardized common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio, the core regulatory capital measure, fell to 12.4%, 100 basis points above its 11.4% requirement. The firm also estimates that nine-month 2026 data place it in the 5.0% systemic-bank surcharge range from 2029 at the earliest. Liquidity and loss-absorbing debt remain far above requirements, so the strain falls on buybacks rather than on solvency.

• Q3 results: net revenues $18,679M (+23% year on year, −8% from Q2). Net earnings were $5,294M and diluted EPS was $17.01, against $12.25 a year earlier.
• Fundraising guidance: 2026 alternatives fundraising is now expected at about $150B, against a standing target of $75–100B a year. $122B was raised in the first nine months.
• Acquisitions: agreements to buy NEOS (up to ~$2.25B in cash and equity, closing expected in Q4 2026) and LCN (up to ~$410M, by the end of Q1 2027).
• Payouts and preferred stock: the dividend rose to $5.00 from $4.50. The firm issued $2.5B of 6.500% Series AA preferred and redeemed $750M of 3.65% Series U; Series O and V redemptions were announced.
• Surcharge outlook: the surcharge is 3.5% for 2026–2027, expected at 4.0% from 2028, and estimated in the 5.0% range from 2029 at the earliest.

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

• Returns run far above target on balance-sheet-heavy financing, but the quarter softened
• The capital cushion sits at the top of the target band while requirements keep rising
• Wholesale credit is still cheap, but loans 90 days past due more than doubled
• The fee base is growing fast, but part of it was bought and the segment trails its targets

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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