Robinhood Markets, Inc.

Robinhood's core platform is still growing and highly profitable. Q3 2026 revenue was a record $1,424M, and revenue less operating expenses rose 8% to $685M by my calculation. The growth, however, now rests on one legally contested product. Excluding event contracts, revenue was essentially flat year over year (+0.3%, my calculation), as net interest revenue fell 9% and crypto revenue fell 55%. The 16% drop in diluted EPS to $0.51 comes mostly from fund mark-to-market losses and a tax rate that nearly doubled, not from erosion of the core business. Capital and liquidity are ample, so the risk is to growth, not to solvency.

• Revenue rose 12% to $1,424M. Net income attributable to Robinhood fell 16% to $468M, and diluted EPS was $0.51 against $0.61. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP profit measure, rose 9% to $808M.
• Event contracts brought in $173M (vs $27M), options $399M (vs $304M) and crypto $120M (vs $268M). Net interest revenues were $415M (vs $456M).
• Net Deposits were $15.7B, a 17% annualized growth rate, against $20.4B (29%) a year earlier. Gold subscribers rose to 5.18M from 3.88M.
• The 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses plus stock compensation was narrowed to $2.675–$2.75B from $2.675–$2.775B.
• A roughly 10% workforce reduction was completed in September. The credit-card trust issued $500M of asset-backed notes on July 23 and another $500M on October 15.

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

• Growth outside event contracts has stalled, and event contracts are in legal retreat
• Net interest revenue is shrinking even as lending grows
• Headline EPS fell on non-operating items, but costs are now outgrowing revenue
• The credit-card build-out adds loss exposure faster than visible income

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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