research report · JPM

Jpmorgan Chase & Co

Johannes Vermeer, Woman Holding a Balance, c. 1664, detail · National Gallery of Art

Viridis’s deep research report, written Nov 3, 2026 from its quarterly report (10-Q for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 3, 2026). Written and checked with Anthropic’s Claude models.

your email, no card; what you get

business trajectory

Improving

better on balance: sales, margins, cash or competitive position

financial resilience

Strong

can meet its obligations and fund its plan for two years with money it can count on, with room

Judgments of the business from its filings, not of its shares: no valuation, no advice.

bottom line

JPMorgan's third quarter of 2026 shows a lending and deposit business that is still growing, paid for with faster cost growth and a thinner capital cushion. Net income was $15.3B, up 6%. The company raised its 2026 guide for net interest income outside trading to about $97.2B, from about $95B in January. Expenses rose 12% while revenue rose 8%. The core capital ratio fell to 14.0% from 14.8% a year earlier, as buybacks shrank to $1.1B. Every regulatory requirement is met with room. The cushion over the higher requirement due in 2028 is about $21–32B on my estimates, close to management's "roughly $30 billion".

what changed this quarter

  • Q3 results: net income $15.3B (+6%) and diluted EPS $5.57 (+10%). Revenue was $50.2B (+8%), expense $27.3B (+12%), and credit costs $2.7B against $3.4B a year earlier.
  • A $658M loss, primarily on Treasury sales, made to reposition the securities portfolio ($498M after tax). Excluding it, net income was $15.8B and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) 21%.
  • 2026 guidance against January:
  • Net interest income: about $106.2B, from about $103B.
  • Net interest income excluding trading: about $97.2B, from about $95B.
  • Adjusted expense: about $108.6B, from about $105B.
  • Card charge-off rate: about 3.2%, from about 3.4%.
  • First 2027 central case for net interest income excluding trading: about $107B.
  • Capital: standardized CET1 14.0%, against 14.2% at June 30. Gross buybacks were $1.1B against $6.7B in Q2. The quarterly dividend rose to $1.65 from $1.50.
  • The stress capital buffer is fixed at 2.5% through 2027. The company sold $7.0B of notes in October.

in the full report

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

  • Balance growth, not one-off gains, is lifting interest income
  • Capital is going into the balance sheet, leaving a thin 2028 cushion
  • Costs are outrunning revenue
  • Consumer credit is improving; wholesale is where risk is building

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

read it whole

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