Nextera Energy Inc

NextEra's underlying earnings grew about 10% in the third quarter of 2026, and the company kept its 2026 guidance. The headline profit, which nearly doubled, mostly reflects gains on interest-rate hedges. Spending ran at more than twice what operations generated: $27.6B of capital spending and investment against $12.3B of operating cash flow over nine months. Debt, including commercial paper, rose to $113.9B from $95.6B at year-end (my sum). The business is strengthening operationally but leans harder on capital markets, and the pending Dominion merger is the largest unresolved variable.

• Adjusted EPS (management's measure excluding hedge marks and other items) was $1.24 vs $1.13, up 9.7%. GAAP EPS was $2.28 vs $1.18.
• Guidance kept: 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.92–$4.02, targeting the high end, and 8%+ annual growth through 2032 off $3.71.
• Dominion: both companies' shareholders approved on Sept 3, with 99.47% of NEE votes cast for the share issuance. The Sept 14 Virginia package proposed to double residential bill credits to four years. Closing is expected in the second half of 2027.
• Financing: 11.0M shares sold through the at-the-market program for $938M gross, and a loan of up to $1.9B guaranteed by the Department of Energy for the Duane Arnold nuclear restart.
• After quarter-end, Hurricane Isaias hit in October. Preliminary recoverable costs are $450–500M, against a $119M storm reserve.

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

• Core earnings grow about 10%; the jump in reported profit is hedge accounting
• Spending runs at more than twice operating cash flow, and debt fills the gap
• The Florida utility earns near the top of its allowed return, with its cushion intact
• The Dominion merger is the swing factor, and its concession price has risen
• Renewables earnings lean on tax credits, and the wind/solar window closes after 2030

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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