research report · QCOM

Qualcomm Inc

Johannes Vermeer, Woman Holding a Balance, c. 1664, detail · National Gallery of Art

Viridis’s deep research report, written Nov 5, 2026 from its annual report (10-K for the year ended Sep 27, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026). Written and checked with Anthropic’s Claude models.

your email, no card; what you get

business trajectory

Deteriorating

worse on balance: sales, margins, cash or competitive position

financial resilience

Strong

can meet its obligations and fund its plan for two years with money it can count on, with room

Judgments of the business from its filings, not of its shares: no valuation, no advice.

bottom line

Qualcomm's core business shrank through fiscal 2026, and the businesses meant to replace it are still mostly a forecast. Revenue fell 3% to $43,120M, operating income fell 30% to $8,658M, and free cash flow (operating cash flow less capital spending) fell 33% to $8,651M. The 146% rise in net income comes from a tax-accounting reversal, not from the business. Long-term license renewals with Apple, Huawei and Transsion reduced licensing risk, and automotive is a real second engine at $1,990M in the fourth quarter (+89%). Still, December-quarter revenue is guided 8%–15% below a year earlier (my calculation). The balance sheet funds the plan comfortably; only buybacks outran cash generation.

what changed this year

  • Revenue was $43,120M vs $44,284M (-3%); fourth quarter $10,322M vs $11,270M (-8%).
  • QCT segment: handsets $24,072M (-13%), automotive $6,004M (+52%), IoT $7,132M (+8%). The licensing segment (QTL) was flat at $5,556M.
  • GAAP EPS was $12.70 vs $5.01, including a $5.32 tax benefit. Non-GAAP EPS was $10.54 vs $12.03 (-12%).
  • Deals and warrant:
  • Acquisitions: Alphawave ($2.3B), Modular ($2.6B accounting price) and eight others ($1.1B).
  • Amazon received a warrant for up to 25M shares at $161.26.
  • Guidance:
  • December quarter: revenue $10.4–11.2B, non-GAAP EPS $2.15–2.35.
  • Fiscal 2027 data center target of $5B reiterated.

in the full report

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

  • The core is still shrinking, and the offset is guided, not delivered
  • Chip margins have reset lower, and the pricing fix is dated to late fiscal 2027
  • Cash generation fell harder than earnings
  • Diversification is being bought with stock, and losses come before revenue

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

read it whole

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