research report · SBUX

Starbucks Corp

Johannes Vermeer, Woman Holding a Balance, c. 1664, detail · National Gallery of Art

Viridis’s deep research report, written Nov 12, 2026 from its annual report (10-K for the year ended Sep 27, 2026, filed Nov 12, 2026). Written and checked with Anthropic’s Claude models.

your email, no card; what you get

business trajectory

Improving

better on balance: sales, margins, cash or competitive position

financial resilience

Adequate

funded for about two years, partly by routine borrowing or new issuance

Judgments of the business from its filings, not of its shares: no valuation, no advice.

bottom line

Starbucks' operating recovery is real, and the audited 10-K confirms it. North America operating income rose to $3,454.2M from $3,156.7M, and the fourth-quarter adjusted operating margin reached 14.0%. The fiscal 2027 guide of 13.5%–14.0% asks that rate to hold for a full year, while management expects growth to lean a little more on average ticket than on customer visits. Cash is the tighter constraint. Planned 2027 capital spending, dividends and about $1B of buybacks total roughly $5.8B (my calculation), against fiscal 2026 operating cash flow of $4,988.4M, so the plan draws on cash on hand.

what changed this year

  • Results: Revenue was $37.9B, up 2.0%, and global comparable sales rose 6.2%. GAAP operating margin was 9.7% against 7.9%. Adjusted EPS was $2.72 against $2.13.
  • China sale: China retail was sold on March 30, 2026. Boyu Capital took 60% and Starbucks kept 40%. Net proceeds were $2,544.2M and the pre-tax gain $536.3M.
  • Debt: Debt fell to $13,276.9M from $16,074.8M, including about $1.3B of notes repurchased by tender offer in May.
  • Store counts: On September 24, net new store guidance was cut to about 440 from 600–650, with about 250 North America closures. The year ended at 617.
  • FY27 guide (a 53-week year):
  • Revenue down about 1%, including about $700M from the extra week.
  • North America comparable sales about 4%.
  • Adjusted EPS $3.15–$3.25.
  • About 1,200 net new stores.
  • About $1B of buybacks.

in the full report

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

  • North America has recovered and carries profit growth, but growth is tilting from visits toward price and mix
  • The FY27 margin guide treats Q4's 14% as a sustainable base, and headline growth overstates the like-for-like gain
  • FY27's cash plan exceeds FY26 operating cash flow, which low capital spending and unpaid taxes flattered
  • Reported profit stays clouded by China taxes, repeated restructuring and a new IRS dispute

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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