research report · T

AT&T Inc.

Johannes Vermeer, Woman Holding a Balance, c. 1664, detail · National Gallery of Art

Viridis’s deep research report, written Nov 1, 2026 from its quarterly report (10-Q for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 21, 2026). Written and checked with Anthropic’s Claude models.

your email, no card; what you get

business trajectory

Improving

better on balance: sales, margins, cash or competitive position

financial resilience

Strong

can meet its obligations and fund its plan for two years with money it can count on, with room

Judgments of the business from its filings, not of its shares: no valuation, no advice.

bottom line

AT&T's 5G-and-fiber business is growing at its best pace in four years, but the growth is not yet producing more cash, and the $23B EchoStar spectrum purchase has made debt the constraint through 2029. Advanced Connectivity service revenue rose 6.1% and its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 7.3% in the third quarter. Nine-month free cash flow nonetheless slipped to $12.13B from $12.41B, even with a large cash-tax saving. Net debt reached 3.13 times a year's adjusted EBITDA, up from 2.59 a year earlier, and the 2.5x target is set for 2029. At guidance, operations still cover network spending and the dividend with roughly $10B a year to spare (my calculation: $18B+ free cash flow less about $8B of dividends).

what changed this quarter

  • Revenue was $32.3B, up 5.3%. Service revenue rose 3.8% and adjusted EBITDA rose 5.4% to $12.5B.
  • Diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.13 versus $1.29. This quarter carried a $2.56B pre-tax Mexico impairment; the year-ago quarter carried a DIRECTV sale gain. Adjusted EPS was $0.65 versus $0.54.
  • Guidance:
  • 2026 adjusted EPS raised to about $2.40 from $2.25–$2.35.
  • 2027–28 capital investment cut to $22–23B a year.
  • Free cash flow outlook kept at $18B+/$19B+/$21B+ for 2026–28.
  • The EchoStar spectrum deal closed July 28 for $22.65B. It was financed with $14.5B of bank term loans plus cash, then partly refinanced with euro, sterling and dollar notes.
  • In October, AT&T agreed to sell Mexico wireless for about $2B cash, with closing expected in the first quarter of 2027. It also agreed to sell 50% of a fiber joint venture to GIP/BlackRock and CPP Investments, with closing expected in the first half of 2027.

in the full report

Its findings, each with the evidence, the strongest counterpoint and what would prove it wrong:

  • The core business is adding customers without losing margin, but fiber prices are falling
  • Earnings-per-share growth leans on lower depreciation, buybacks and a fading retiree-benefit credit
  • Cash generation is flat and helped by temporary tax savings
  • The spectrum purchase made leverage the binding constraint

Then its finances, the quality of its earnings, its management, the case for and against, and what to watch, its claims cited to the filings and checked against them.

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